- The federal 25D tax credit for homeowner solar expired December 31, 2025. Residential demand pulled forward hard, then dropped. Your agency needs a stated plan for the after-credit market, not just the surge.
- Commercial and utility-scale solar (45Y/48E credits) still has a window, but it closes for projects that don’t begin construction by July 5, 2026. That’s a second, different surge your agency should already be pricing into its media plan.
- Judge the agency on cost-per-sit, not cost-per-lead. Industry contact rates run 50-70%, but the appointment-set rate ranges from 25% for shared leads up to 60% for exclusive, well-qualified ones. A cheap lead that no one shows up for isn’t cheap.
- Appointment-set solar leads run $400-$800. If your agency’s number is far outside that band, ask what they changed to get there, and whether it was quality or definition.
- Ask for the compliance review process before you ask for the media plan. FTC enforcement on deceptive advertising and “Made in USA” claims is up in 2026, and solar savings claims are a common target.
December 31, 2025 was a Wednesday. It was also the last day a homeowner could sign a contract and still lock in the 25D federal tax credit. That was the 30% credit that had underwritten residential solar sales for most of the last two decades. Congress killed it earlier in 2025. Installers spent the second half of the year running the same playbook: pull every fence-sitting homeowner across the line before the deadline. That playbook is over now. If your media-buying agency is still running it, that’s the first thing to raise on your next call. Same if they haven’t told you what replaces it.
Quick answers:
- What should a solar media-buying agency change now that the 25D tax credit is gone?
- Is an appointment-set solar lead better than a raw lead?
- What is a realistic cost per lead for solar installers in 2026?
- What compliance review should a solar ad agency run before a creative goes live?
- How does the commercial solar tax credit deadline affect media buying?
- What should I ask before hiring a solar media-buying agency?
The Two Solar Markets Are Now Running on Different Clocks
Solar demand used to move on one calendar: whatever the current federal incentive was doing. That’s no longer true. Residential and commercial solar now run on two separate deadlines. A media-buying agency that treats them as one market is going to misprice both.
The residential 25D credit was the 30% credit homeowners claimed on their own tax return. It expired for good on December 31, 2025, under the tax law Congress passed and the president signed in 2025 (EnergySage). There’s no phase-down, no partial credit, no extension window.
A homeowner who signs a contract in 2026 pays full price relative to a 2025 buyer, financing terms aside. That changes the sales conversation your agency’s creative has to set up. Value now has to come from utility-rate savings and financing math, not “get 30% back from the IRS.”
Commercial and utility-scale solar is on a different track. The technology-neutral 45Y and 48E credits still exist, but the same law accelerated their phase-out for projects that begin construction after July 5, 2026 (Williams Mullen).
Projects that break ground before that date can still lock in the higher credit. That’s a second surge, and it lands mid-2026. It is not the same window as the residential cliff that already passed.
| Segment | Tax credit | Key date | What it means for media buying |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential rooftop | 25D | Expired Dec 31, 2025 | Post-credit market now; savings/financing angle replaces tax-credit urgency |
| Commercial / utility-scale | 45Y / 48E | Must begin construction by Jul 5, 2026 | A second, real surge window that closes mid-2026 |
An agency that can’t tell you which of these two calendars a given campaign is running against hasn’t done its homework. Ask them to name the date. If they can’t, they’re guessing at your budget pacing.
Judge the Agency on Cost-Per-Sit, Not Cost-Per-Lead
A raw solar lead and an appointment-set solar lead are not the same product. Pricing them the same way is how installers end up paying for a full sales calendar that never shows up. Industry benchmarks put the contact rate for a decent solar lead at 50-70%. From there, the appointment-set rate ranges from 25% on the low end for shared leads up to 60% for exclusive, well-qualified ones (LinkedIn / solar lead cost guide).
Run the low end forward: out of 100 shared raw leads, roughly 60 get a live conversation, and as few as 15 of those turn into a sales appointment that actually happens. Exclusive, well-qualified leads clear that bar at closer to double the rate. Ask your agency which end of that range their leads land on, and whether the lead is shared or exclusive.
That’s why a cheap cost-per-lead can be an expensive way to book a calendar. If your agency reports cost-per-lead as the headline number, ask them to also report cost-per-sit: the cost of a lead that actually shows up for the appointment, in person or on the phone, ready to talk. Appointment-set solar leads currently run in the $400-$800 range (LinkedIn). If your agency’s blended cost-per-sit is far under that band, find out what changed. It could be a real efficiency gain, or it could just be a looser definition of “set.”
The common mistake here isn’t hiring an agency that reports raw cost-per-lead. It’s letting them report it as the only number. That way, a decline in lead quality shows up as flat costs instead of a rising cost-per-sit. Put cost-per-sit in the contract as the metric you’re actually watching, and ask for it every reporting period.
What Your Agency’s Creative Review Process Has to Catch
Solar advertising sits in a category regulators actively watch, and 2026 enforcement is trending up. The FTC has signaled heightened scrutiny of deceptive advertising claims broadly, including “Made in USA” claims and unsubstantiated savings statements (Benesch Law, FTC Enforcement Trends 2026; Holland & Knight).
Those are exactly the categories solar creative runs into constantly: a savings percentage, a payback-period claim, or a domestic-content claim on panels or installation.
A media-buying agency running solar creative at volume needs a review step before a claim goes live, not after a complaint arrives. Ask what that step looks like in practice. Who checks a “save X% on your electric bill” headline against real, documented utility-rate math before it’s approved? Who verifies a “Made in USA” claim before it’s on a landing page? An agency that answers “we haven’t had a problem yet” doesn’t have a process. It’s had luck.
Ask for one specific thing in the pitch: a sample of their claim-substantiation checklist, or the last time they killed a creative concept in review before it ran. Either answer tells you whether compliance is a step in their pipeline or an afterthought.
What a Realistic CPL and CPA Actually Look Like
There’s no single national number for solar cost-per-lead, and any agency that hands you one flat figure for every market is smoothing over real variation. What does vary in a documented, sourced way is deal size. A typical 8 kW residential system runs $18,400-$28,800 installed before incentives (PowMr Academy). A 12 kW system runs roughly $28,900-$40,100 (SolarInsure). A media-buying agency should be pricing your acceptable cost-per-acquisition against that deal size, not against a generic industry CPL.
Region matters too. The driver isn’t ad cost so much as local permitting timelines and utility-rate structures. A state with fast interconnection and high electricity rates converts a sat appointment into a signed contract faster than a state with a slow permitting queue and cheap grid power, even at the same media spend.
Ask your agency how targeting and bid strategy differ across your service territories. Push for a specific reason, like permitting speed, utility rate, or incentive structure, not a generic “we optimize by region” answer.
The decision rule: don’t accept a single blended CPA target across every market and system size you sell into. Ask for a CPA range tied to your actual deal-size mix, and revisit it whenever your average system size or territory mix shifts.
The Agency-Evaluation Checklist
Before you sign, get direct answers to these:
- Which tax-credit calendar is this campaign built around, the post-25D residential market or the pre-July-2026 commercial surge, and what changes in the media plan because of it?
- What’s the reported cost-per-sit, not just cost-per-lead, and how is “sit” defined?
- What does the claim-review process look like before a solar-savings or Made-in-USA claim goes live?
- What CPA range are they targeting, tied to your actual system-size mix and service territories?
- Can they show a specific example of creative or targeting they changed because of a state or utility-level difference, not a generic answer?
An agency that answers all five specifically, with real numbers and real examples, is worth the conversation. One that answers in generalities is telling you it hasn’t run solar at the level your budget needs. The same evaluation approach applies across other verticals: the Medicare Advantage AEP surge model for agency vetting and how final expense agents separate shared leads from exclusive agency-managed media both walk through the sibling checklists for their markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What should a solar media-buying agency change now that the 25D tax credit is gone?
The pitch has to move away from “claim your 30% credit before it disappears.” It needs to lead with utility-rate savings, financing terms, and payback period instead, because that tax-credit urgency no longer exists for homeowners. Ask your agency what specifically replaced tax-credit urgency in their creative and messaging.
Is an appointment-set solar lead better than a raw lead?
For most installers, yes, especially for shared leads, where the appointment-set rate runs as low as 25% even after contact (exclusive, well-qualified leads clear closer to 60%). Appointment-set leads cost more upfront, typically $400-$800. But they remove the show-rate risk that makes a cheap raw lead expensive in practice. The right choice depends on your sales team’s capacity to work a high volume of raw leads before they go cold, and on whether those leads are shared or exclusive.
What is a realistic cost per lead for solar installers in 2026?
There’s no single national number, and an agency quoting one flat CPL for every market is oversimplifying. Cost should scale with your typical deal size: an 8 kW system runs $18,400-$28,800 installed, and a 12 kW system runs roughly $28,900-$40,100. It should also vary by region based on permitting speed and utility rates, not a generic industry average.
What compliance review should a solar ad agency run before a creative goes live?
At minimum, a documented process for verifying savings-percentage claims against real utility-rate math. That process should also confirm any “Made in USA” claim meets the FTC’s actual standard before the creative is approved. FTC enforcement on both fronts is trending up in 2026, and solar is a category regulators actively watch.
How does the commercial solar tax credit deadline affect media buying?
Commercial and utility-scale projects under the 45Y/48E credits must begin construction by July 5, 2026 to lock in the full credit. That’s before the accelerated phase-out applies. It creates a second demand surge, separate from and later than the residential 25D cliff that already passed on December 31, 2025. If you sell into the commercial segment, it should show up as a distinct phase in your agency’s media plan.
What should I ask before hiring a solar media-buying agency?
Ask five things before you sign: which tax-credit calendar their plan is built around, their cost-per-sit (not just cost-per-lead), and their claim-review process. Also ask their CPA range for your deal-size mix, and for one concrete example of a decision they changed because of your market. Vague answers to any of these are a signal to keep looking.
Ready to see what a media-buying agency that already understands both solar tax-credit calendars can do with your budget? Book a free consultation and get a straight answer on cost-per-sit before you sign anything.
